Wednesday, November 6, 2024

It’s Wednesday, November 6, 2024. Yesterday was Election Day. The 2025 Colorado legislative session will convene in 63 days.

These updates are curated from multiple news sources and designed to be a “choose-your-own-adventure.” Please read any coverage of interest and skip anything you deem to be irrelevant. Hyperlinks are provided to add additional context. With the 24/7 news-cycle I hope to keep us all in the loop on items we may want to know about or better understand. Please feel free to share if you think someone outside FGMC needs to be aware of this information.

Disclaimer – The news and articles contained within this update do not represent any political positions or policy opinions of Foster Graham Milstein & Calisher, LLP. This update is designed for informational purposes only.

If you’re like me, you were up late last night and early this morning following the election results.

As mentioned yesterday, you will receive a full election report in the coming days once more of the final votes are tallied (specifically the U.S. House). But let’s talk about what we do know about the 2024 election… 

PRESIDENT: Donald Trump will be the 47^th President of the United States.

Former President Donald Trump is projected to be the next president of the United States.

• As of 6 AM Eastern, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin had been projected for Trump, and the once-and-future president leads in Arizona, Michigan, and Nevada as well.
• At this point, according to ABC News/538, the most likely final outcome appears to be a 312-226 Trump victory.
• Plus, while it will take some time to count all the ballots, Trump looks likely to win the national popular vote for president, too.
• Vice President Harris called President-elect Trump on Wednesday to congratulate him on his victory the night before, a senior Harris aide confirmed to The Hill.
• The aide said Harris discussed the importance of a peaceful transfer of power and being a president for all Americans.
• The vice president is expected to deliver remarks later Wednesday afternoon at Howard University in Washington, D.C., where supporters had gathered Tuesday night to watch results come in. Harris is an alumna of Howard.

Ultimately, Trump scored a decisive victory in a deeply divided nation. In doing so, the Republican president-elect exposed a fundamental weakness within the Democratic base and beat back concerns about his moral failings, becoming the first U.S. president with a felony conviction.

U.S. SENATE: When the dust settles, Republicans will control the U. S. Senate – the question is by how much. 

Republicans have officially taken control of the U.S. Senate.

• The Republican rally began early on election night in West Virginia, as Governor Jim Justice, a wealthy businessman, successfully flipped the Senate seat held by retiring Democrat Joe Manchin.
• From there, Republicans, bolstered by former President Trump’s support, surged across the Senate map.
• In Ohio, they claimed their first victory by unseating incumbent Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown, with GOP challenger Bernie Moreno—a luxury car dealer and blockchain entrepreneur—emerging victorious.
• The Republicans continued their momentum, targeting the “blue wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where Vice President Kamala Harris struggled to keep the Democratic party on track.
• One of the most closely watched races unfolded in Montana, where three-term Democratic Sen. Jon Tester, a popular figure and self-described “dirt farmer,” lost his seat to Tim Sheehy.
• The Trump-backed Republican, a wealthy former Navy SEAL, pulled off the win despite controversy over derogatory comments he had made about Native Americans, a key voting bloc in the state.
• Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) credited Republicans’ election night wins on “candidate quality” after they not only flipped the Senate but could end up with a larger-than-expected majority.

While Republicans have won control of the Senate, the margin remains up in the air. As of this writing, 5 races remain uncalled. Races in Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, as well as Arizona and Michigan, could determine how narrow the margin of control is.

U.S. HOUSE: The U.S. House is heavily leaning Republican – but the votes haven’t all been counted. 

Control of the House is in limbo Wednesday as votes in several critical races continue to be tallied.

• All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives were on the ballot in the 2024 election, and whichever party wins control of the House will likely have a slim majority, making every seat crucial to a majority.
• The balance of power is likely to come down to the results in about 40 races, according to the Cook Political Report, a nonpartisan election analysis site.
• As of Wednesday morning, projections indicated that Democrats were set to win at least 188 seats, while Republicans were expected to secure 197 seats.
• High-profile lawmakers including House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., have already won-reelection.
• According to NBC, twenty key races have not been called. The Republicans need 12 more House seats to secure a majority, while the Democrats need 33.

To regain the majority they lost in 2022, House Democrats would need to flip four Republican-held districts, in addition to retaining all the seats they currently hold. Currently, Republicans hold a slim majority in the House with 220 seats, while Democrats control 212 seats. There are also three vacant seats.

COLORADO: A normal hue of blue – for the most part. 

As noted by Colorado Politics, the only surprise on election night in Colorado was the lack of major surprises. Contrary to the expectations of party leaders on both sides, few competitive seats changed hands. Voters across the state, as usual, supported a blend of progressive and conservative statewide measures, while rejecting propositions from both partisan and centrist groups

Democrats will keep large numbers in the Colorado General Assembly but seem to have missed a supermajority in the Senate.

• Colorado Democrats maintained their sizable majorities in the state legislature, but their hopes of securing a rare supermajority in both the House and Senate were narrowing by Wednesday morning, with several races still too close to call.
• Heading into Election Day, Democrats were just one seat shy of a two-thirds supermajority in the Senate, aiming to match their margin of control in the House, with a focus on flipping three key seats.
• By Wednesday morning, they still led in the race to flip one of those seats—Senate District 12 in El Paso County.
• However, Democrats lost a key race in the suburbs northeast of Denver and were either trailing or had already lost in two rural, Republican-held districts they had hoped to flip.
• In those rural districts, the two Republican incumbents—state Rep. Marc Catlin and Sen. Cleave Simpson—both maintained strong leads.
• Simpson’s victory was clear by late Tuesday night, while Catlin was ahead by more than 3,000 votes just after 11:30 a.m. Wednesday.
• Meanwhile, in Senate District 12 in El Paso County, the Democrat, State Rep. Marc Snyder, was leading Republican County Commissioner Stan VanderWerf by fewer than 1,600 votes as of Wednesday.
• For Democrats to secure a supermajority, they needed to win either Catlin’s or Simpson’s district to reach 24 Senate seats.
• After losing Senate District 13, which was held by term-limited Sen. Kevin Priola (a former moderate Republican who switched parties to become a Democrat in August 2022), Democrats now needed to win two of the remaining three targeted races.
• A supermajority would have allowed the progressive left to push a more aggressive agenda on issues like worker and tenant rights, environmental policy, and social services.
• Even without a full supermajority, however, Democrats maintained a strong hold on the Senate, two years after they unexpectedly surged to near-supermajority status in the 2022 election, which had been expected to be a “red wave.”
• Pressure from the Democratic base is likely to intensify, demanding action on key issues, especially as a counterbalance to the potential threat of a second Donald Trump presidency.
• However, their ability to reshape state governance next year may be limited.
• Lawmakers will return to the state Capitol in January facing the urgent need to cut more than $1 billion in spending, with cuts expected to hit Democratic priorities like Medicaid and education.
• And, as highlighted by The Colorado Sun, while Republicans remain out of power in the legislature, conservative groups outside the Capitol continue to play a significant role in shaping state fiscal policy.

Meanwhile, results from Colorado’s U.S. House races are starting to become clear, with several incumbents maintaining their positions.

Decided Races:

• HD1: Diana DeGette (D) – DeGette is a long-time incumbent, and it’s no surprise that she won re-election.
• HD2: Joe Neguse (D) – Neguse has been a rising star in the Democratic Party, so his re-election is expected.
• HD4: Lauren Boebert (R) – Despite some controversy, Boebert has managed to hold onto her seat, reflecting her strong base of support in this district.
• HD5: Jeff Crank (R) – A Republican hold in this district, which is considered more conservative.
• HD6: Jason Crow (D) – Crow, representing a competitive district, has held onto his seat, reflecting his strong campaigning and moderate approach.
• HD7: Brittany Pettersen (D) – Pettersen, a newer face to Congress, has managed to retain this seat, reflecting the growing trend in suburban districts shifting toward Democrats.

Key Races Still Pending:

• HD3: Jeff Hurd (R) v. Adam Frisch (D) – This race is expected to be one of the closest. Adam Frisch narrowly lost to Boebert in 2022, and this rematch could be highly competitive, especially with the district being swingier than some other parts of Colorado.
• HD8: Yadira Caraveo (D) v. Gabe Evans (R) – This is a newly drawn district that includes parts of the Denver suburbs and exurbs. Caraveo, the Democratic candidate, is an up-and-coming figure in Colorado politics, but Evans, the Republican challenger, has been making this race one to watch.
• With these key races still in play, it’s likely that the results from HD3 and HD8 could shift the overall political balance for Colorado’s delegation.
• We’ll need to see if Frisch can manage to flip the district or if Caraveo can hold onto the newly drawn district.

At the same time, several statewide ballot initiatives in Colorado have been decided, with many measures passing successfully.

Passed/Failed Measures:

• Amendment 79: Right to Abortion – Passed.
  • This measure enshrines the right to abortion in the state constitution, affirming reproductive rights.
• Amendment G: Modify Veteran Property Tax – Passed.
  • This amendment revises property tax exemptions for veterans, enhancing benefits for qualifying individuals.
• Amendment H: Judicial Adjudicative Board – Passed.
  • Establishes a judicial adjudicative board, aimed at improving the transparency and oversight of judicial processes.
• Amendment I: Bail Exemption for Murder – Passed.
  • This amendment exempts individuals charged with murder from being eligible for bail, addressing concerns about public safety.
• Amendment J: Definition of Marriage – Passed.
  • Defines marriage in the state constitution, establishing a legal standard.
• Proposition 128: Parole Eligibility – Passed.
  • Expands eligibility for parole, offering a broader scope of consideration for inmates seeking release under specific conditions.
• Proposition JJ: Retain Betting Revenue – Passed.
  • This measure ensures that revenues from legal sports betting will continue to be retained for state use, securing funding for various state initiatives.
• Proposition KK: Firearms Excise Tax – Passed.
  • Introduces a tax on firearms sales, with revenue earmarked for public safety and crime prevention programs.
• Proposition 127: Big Cat Trophy Hunting – Failed.
  • This proposition bans the trophy hunting of big cats, such as lions and tigers, reflecting increasing concerns about animal rights and conservation.

Measures Still Awaiting Official Results:

• Amendment 80: School Choice – Failing.
  • Currently losing, this measure sought to expand options for school choice, including funding mechanisms for alternative schooling methods.
• Amendment K: Election Deadlines – Failing.
  • Also currently losing, this amendment proposed changes to election-related deadlines to streamline the voting process and improve electoral efficiency.
• Proposition 129: Veterinary Professional Association – Passing.
  • Currently winning, this proposition aims to establish a professional association for veterinary professionals, setting industry standards and guidelines.
• Proposition 130: Law Enforcement Funding – Passing.
  • Currently winning, this measure focuses on increasing funding for law enforcement agencies to support public safety and community policing.
• Proposition 131: Ranked Choice Voting – Failing.
  • Currently losing, this proposition proposed the adoption of ranked choice voting in future elections, a shift designed to encourage more representative and less polarized outcomes.

The remaining measures are still in flux, with outcomes still pending as of the latest available data. The passage or failure of these initiatives could significantly impact key policy areas, including education, public safety, and electoral reform.

DENVER: A mishmash of results in the capitol city. 

Denver, the state’s largest city and a Democratic stronghold, backed liberal candidates, public employee unions, and measures aimed at funding Denver Health, schools, and transit projects. However, Mayor Mike Johnston’s proposed $100 million tax hike for affordable housing seemed to push too far, with the latest results showing it trailing by more than 3 percentage points.

Animal rights activists sought to make a mark in Colorado with three ballot measures focused on animal welfare, but all failed by wide margins— including a statewide ban on mountain lion hunting and restrictions in Denver on slaughterhouses and fur. In the end, Colorado’s strong traditions of hunting, livestock, and cowboy culture remain firmly intact.

As of 12 PM today, here’s where each measure stands, based on results from the Denver Elections Division:

• Denver Health Funding (2Q): Winning with 57% in favor, 43% against.
  • This measure proposes a 0.34% local sales tax increase to raise $70 million annually for the operational needs of Denver Health, the city’s safety-net hospital.
• Affordable Housing Funding (2R): Losing with 48% in favor, 52% against.
  • This proposal, pushed by Mayor Mike Johnston, aims to raise the local sales tax by 0.5% to generate $100 million annually for affordable housing projects.
• Human Rights Office (2S): Winning with 64% in favor, 36% against.
  • Approval would establish Denver’s Agency for Human Rights and Community Partnerships as a charter agency and add its executive director to the mayor’s Cabinet.
• Citizenship Requirement for Police and Firefighters (2T): Winning with 51% in favor, 49% against.
  • This measure, proposed by the Denver City Council, would allow non-U.S. citizens to serve as police officers and firefighters in the city.
• Collective Bargaining (2U): Winning with 64% in favor, 36% against.
  • Approval would extend collective bargaining rights to nearly all city employees.
• Firefighters Collective Bargaining (2V): Winning with 66% in favor, 34% against.
  • This measure would guarantee binding arbitration for firefighters during collective bargaining disputes.
• Elected Officials’ Salaries (2W): Winning with 61% in favor, 39% against.
  • This measure would change how elected officials, including the mayor and City Council members, receive raises.
• Fur Ban (Ordinance 308): Losing with 42% in favor, 58% against.
  • This ordinance would prohibit the sale and manufacturing of new animal fur products in Denver.
• Slaughterhouse Ban (Ordinance 309): Losing with 35% in favor, 65% against.
  • If approved, this measure would close the city’s sole slaughterhouse and prevent new facilities from opening starting in 2026.
• Denver Public Schools Bond (4A): Winning with 74% in favor, 26% against.
  • This initiative calls for $975 million in bonds to repair and maintain 154 Denver Public Schools facilities.
• Downtown Development (6A): Winning with 81% in favor, 19% against.
  • This measure, available only to Denver voters who live or own businesses in the downtown area, would expand the Denver Downtown Development Authority’s boundaries to include more properties for tax collection.
• Regional Transportation District (7A): Winning with 78% in favor, 22% against.
  • This measure would allow RTD to permanently retain all sales tax revenue that would otherwise be refunded to Coloradans under the Taxpayer’s Bill of Rights (TABOR).

OTHER INSIGHTS: What seems to have happened in an election that surprised so many.  

A few takeaways so far…

Once again, it seems the polls have underestimated Trump.

• While results are still coming in from across the country, what was initially seen as a tight race, with just a one-point margin in key swing states, quickly turned into a decisive victory.
• In North Carolina, where 97% of the vote has been counted, Donald Trump was projected to have a 1.3-point lead according to the final polling averages from Real Clear Politics.
• However, he has surpassed that expectation by a margin of three points.
• In Pennsylvania, where polling had placed Donald Trump just 0.2 points ahead, he now appears to have won by around three points with 95% of the vote counted.
• In both Wisconsin and Michigan, where polls had predicted a loss to Kamala Harris, Trump is on track to secure victories in both states.
• On average, Trump outperformed expectations by about three points in key swing states.
• Nationally, he is also poised to win the popular vote, surpassing his 2016 performance, when he fell short in this regard.
• With about 20% of the vote still to be counted, it’s clear that Trump is on track to improve his standing.
• Pollsters, however, will likely view the outcome as a relative success.
• The actual results fall within the margin of error—typically around three points—and unlike in 2016, they correctly called the majority of swing states in Trump’s favor.
• As reported by Yahoo News, lessons from 2016 appear to have been absorbed.
• Back then, polls gave Hillary Clinton a seven-point lead in Wisconsin, yet Trump won by a comfortable margin. Similar miscalculations occurred in Pennsylvania and Michigan.
• The main issue in 2016 was that certain groups were much easier for pollsters to reach, in particular college-educated voters, who were more likely to vote for Clinton. Republicans in general were less likely to reply to surveys.
• Pollsters tried to adjust to these gaps by weighting responses, effectively making up for a lack of response by portions of society.
• Still, while the polls represent a clear improvement, they still largely got it wrong.
• There are reasons modern polling is struggling: Shy Donald Trump voters. Shy Kamala Harris voters. The difficulty of reaching voters — particularly young and minority voters — in the cellphone age. Like with TV ratings, the landscape has changed, and the numbers have grown fuzzy.

It all went wrong from early on for Harris

• The writing was on the wall for Vice President Harris early in the evening.
• The first sign of trouble came with a swift call that Trump would win Florida.
• While the result itself wasn’t surprising, the fact that Trump was leading by nearly double the 6-point margin predicted by polling averages was a troubling omen for the Democratic nominee.
• As the night wore on, the pro-Trump momentum continued.
• States that were considered solidly Democratic, like Virginia and even New Jersey, remained too close to call for an unusually long period, causing unease for Team Harris.
• Meanwhile, Trump quickly surged ahead in every key swing state.

Democrats are in their nightmare scenario: On track to lose every key swing state.

• As noted by Politico, Donald Trump has shattered the Democrats’ Blue Wall for the second time.
• By Wednesday morning, Kamala Harris had lost Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, and Michigan was quickly slipping out of reach.
• It was the Democrats’ worst-case scenario, as Trump scored a series of unexpected victories across key battleground states.
• This is a significant breakthrough for Trump—one that is already prompting deep reflection among Democrats in the Blue Wall states.
• Harris’s team had long believed that holding the Blue Wall was central to her path to victory.
• They hoped she could win over Republican-leaning suburban women, especially on issues like abortion and democracy.
• But it was a high-risk strategy that faltered under the weight of major social and economic challenges: backlash over immigration, frustration from Muslim and Arab American voters over the administration’s Middle East policies, soaring inflation, and white, working-class voters increasingly shifting toward Trump.
• Meanwhile, Harris faced a noticeable erosion of support from Black and Latino voters, particularly among men.
• In Pennsylvania, early returns show that Trump improved on his 2020 performance in counties across the state, further cementing his hold on these critical regions.

Shifts in voting blocs had major outcomes that benefited Trump. 

• Black voters — men and women — have been the bedrock of the Democratic Party, and in recent years, Latinos and young voters have joined them.
• All three groups still preferred Democrat Kamala Harris.
• But preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a survey of more than 120,000 voters nationwide, suggested that Trump made significant gains.
• Voters under age 30 represent a fraction of the total electorate, but about half of them supported Harris. That’s compared to the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020. Slightly more than 4 in 10 young voters went for Trump, up from about one-third in 2020
• At the same time, Black and Latino voters appeared slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to back Biden four years ago, according to AP VoteCast.
• About 8 in 10 Black voters backed Harris, down from the roughly 9 in 10 who backed Biden.
• More than half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that was down slightly from the roughly 6 in 10 who backed Biden in 2020.
• Trump’s support among those groups appeared to rise slightly compared to 2020.
• About half of women backed Harris, while about half of men went for Trump, according to AP VoteCast. That appears largely consistent with the shares for Biden and Trump in 2020.
• But there was one real shock – Latino men shifted toward Trump by a breathtaking margin, according to the CNN exit polls. In 2020, those exit polls showed Latino men voting for Biden over Trump by a 23-point margin, 59 percent to 36 percent.
• Collectively, those small gains yielded an outsize outcome.

The abortion issue failed to make the difference in the presidential race.

• Many Democrats had pinned their hopes on the idea that women would turn out in record numbers to elect the nation’s first female president, especially after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade just two years earlier.
• But that turnout didn’t materialize.
• While there was a gender gap, the exit polls so far suggest it wasn’t significantly larger than it was four years ago.
• In fact, in 2020, women supported Biden over Trump by a 15-point margin, according to CNN exit polls.
• This year, the polls show Harris leading among female voters by just 10 points.
• That doesn’t mean abortion has become a winning issue for Republicans—far from it.
• For example, a Florida ballot measure on abortion failed to meet the 60% threshold needed for passage, though about 57% of voters aligned with the pro-choice position.
• But in the end, the abortion issue didn’t prove nearly as decisive as Harris had hoped it would be.

Reading the tea leaves may take a little time.

• Over the next few months, pollsters and pundits will do a lot of analysis to figure out how exactly Trump won.
• He may be, after all, only the second Republican presidential candidate since 1992 to win the national popular vote.
• That warrants not only introspection among Democrats, but a lot of quality analysis, too.
• And Trump’s sweep of the swing states — while not surprising — also represents a new high-water mark for his electoral success.

To follow the latest results I would recommend The Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ, 270toWin, 538, NYT, and Colorado SOS.  That’s all for today with plenty more to come down the road. Please reach out with any questions.

Best,

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